Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been under pressure from members of his own government. (Reuters/ Ohad Zwigenberg)
On New Year's Eve, the sight of a gaunt Benjamin Netanyahu sitting in the Israeli parliament made headlines across his country.
And it goes a long way to explain why the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal Israeli negotiators agreed to after marathon negotiations in Qatar is already on shaky ground, less than 24 hours after it was announced.
And why, after many months of talks, the proposal agreed to in Doha is broadly the same deal that could have been signed off when it was first put forward by US President Joe Biden in late May 2024.
In late December, the PM went through prostate surgery and was meant to be recuperating at home.
Gaza ceasefire live updates: Follow our blog for the latest developments
But he was dragged to the Knesset to vote on a budget bill — all because a member of his coalition government, the controversial far-right national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, was not playing ball and decided to block it.
Palestinian children wait to collect water at a tent camp on Thursday. (Reuters: Mahmoud Issa)
It was a moment that almost perfectly described the state of the Netanyahu government.
A prime minister so keen to hold on to power, and reliant on extremist elements of the Israeli political class to do so, forced out bed and hobbling into the Knesset to ensure a piece of his own agenda was not scuttled by the very people propping him up.
History, it seems, repeats.
Netanyahu's office has been quick to accuse Hamas of jeopardising the 2025 ceasefire deal, causing a "crisis" and delaying a cabinet vote to adopt the proposal.
But it soon leaked that this was more a predicament within his own ranks.
US diplomat Henry Kissinger once remarked that Israel does not have foreign policy, it only has domestic interests.
And that may well be playing out right now — with many Israeli and Palestinian lives at risk.
Itamar Ben-Gvir makes a point in the Knesset last year. (Pool: Debbie Hill via Reuters)
The enemy within
There are two political irritants for Netanyahu inside his cabinet — Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
The men bring with them votes which, allegedly, shore up support for Netanyahu in the 120-seat Knesset.
Ben-Gvir's party commands six votes, while finance minister Smotrich's team is seven strong.
Neither of the men are fans of ending the war in Gaza. They view a ceasefire and hostage deal as a capitulation to Hamas.
Each has threatened to quit the government if it goes ahead. Ben-Gvir has even boasted of scuttling previous negotiations with such tactics.
On Thursday night, local time, he held a press conference where he reiterated that he would leave Netanyahu's coalition if a ceasefire went ahead.
In pictures: Reactions to Gaza ceasefire
Photo shows Palestinian men cheer and sing scarves around in celebration
Recent political wrangling by Netanyahu has bolstered the number of votes the coalition has in the Knesset — more parties have joined the fold.
So the departure of Ben-Gvir would not tear down the government. Smotrich leaving would plunge the Netanyahu government into minority.
And the pair have said they would vote with the prime minister, albeit from opposition. It would not trigger an election.
However, the future political ramifications for the man they call "Bibi" seem to scare him.
Alienating right-wing politicians who could hold the key to his ongoing hold on the prime ministership might not have immediate consequences, but would seriously wound Netanyahu the next time there is a poll.
Bezalel Smotrich could plunge the Netanyahu government into minority if his party leaves the coalition. (AP: Maya Alleruzzo)
The blame game
On Thursday morning local time, the PM's office claimed he would not call a cabinet meeting to vote on the ceasefire and hostage deal.
Netanyahu's spokesperson blamed Hamas, saying it had reneged on terms of the deal and plunged it into crisis.
There may well have been some equivocation from the Gaza-based group — but it insisted it was behind the agreement.
Soon after, the leaks from within the Knesset and the government began.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been under pressure from members of his own government. (Reuters/ Ohad Zwigenberg)
Israeli media started reporting this was actually something of a stalling tactic while Netanyahu negotiated with the Smotrich camp.
His party came back with a list of demands — including that fighting recommence.
One might wonder how a ceasefire deal and a pledge for ongoing fighting can co-exist.
They cannot, particularly when this proposal includes a timeframe to begin talks on a lasting peace in Gaza.
It is this demand that had thrown what could have been an administrative process — Cabinet voting to adopt the ceasefire and hostage deal — into a grave threat to any resolution to the 15-month war.
A man surveys what's left of a building in Gaza on Thursday, the morning after a ceasefire deal was announced. (Reuters: Mahmoud Issa)
The calculation
Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, and their like-minded allies inside and outside the Knesset, believe the relentless bombardment of Gaza needs to continue.
In their view, that is the only way to defeat Hamas.
They appear to be prepared to risk the lives of Israeli hostages still held by Hamas.
Thirty-three are slated to be released by the group in the first phase of the proposed ceasefire, and there are 98 in total in Gaza.
There have been investigations by the Israel Defense Forces that have suggested some of the Israeli hostages who have been killed in the war so far have died as a result of that ongoing military action — either falling victim to Israel's own strikes, or potentially being killed by Hamas in retaliation for IDF missiles being launched close to strongholds.
'EPIC' ceasefire deal more a Band-Aid
Photo shows Two young women hold aloft large candles as they celebrate with a crowd of protesters carrying signs.
The calculation for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is whether that is a price he is willing to pay to appease his political protectors.
Some in the Israeli public may support him in that — overnight, hundreds of banners were unfurled across Jerusalem saying that the ceasefire and hostage deal was "not a victory".
But for the many others tired of war, weary of racing to bomb shelters in the middle of the night, and desperate to see loved ones return home, it will be a step too far.
Netanyahu will likely be running the sums late into the evening.
And the clock is ticking if this deal is to come into force on Sunday.
