Foreign Minister Penny Wong has demonstrated an ability to hold her ground on issues of contention with Beijing. (Reuters: Kevin Mohatt)
When Foreign Minister Penny Wong concluded her meeting with her Chinese counterpart Wang Yi on the sidelines of the G20 in South Africa last week, insiders were quick to note a striking development: the Chinese side arrived without a list of demands.
For years, every bilateral meeting between Canberra and Beijing carried the Chinese Communist Party's well-known grievances: trade restrictions, Huawei bans, or AUKUS defence agreements.
Yet this time, there was silence.
Far from an oversight, this "empty list" was designed to speak volumes. And it did.
Beijing signalled a remarkable shift in approach towards Canberra, one that appears aimed at bolstering Labor's prospects in the looming federal election.
China's diplomatic script
Anyone familiar with China's well-rehearsed diplomatic style knows it is anything but ad hoc.
Beijing keeps a meticulous record of diplomatic scripts: who welcomes whom, when they arrive, how late they might be, and even which official stands where for the group photo.
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Everything — from the handshake grip to whether a smile is appropriate to who speaks first — is carefully choreographed.
The reason?Â
Symbolism is everything in Chinese diplomacy. Each minute detail sends an unspoken message of either respect or disregard.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met in South America four months ago, the warmth in his greeting stood in stark contrast to his demeanour with other world leaders at the same event.
Some diplomats at the scene, for example, found Xi notably colder just moments before the Australian delegation walked into the same venue.
For Australia, the message is that Xi and his administration perceive Labor as the "well-digger".
The reference goes back to Gough Whitlam's establishment of diplomatic ties with China, hailed by Xi himself as the start of a respectful relationship that has brought both nations together.
Anthony Albanese and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the G20 summit. (Supplied: Prime Minister's Office)
At a bilateral meeting with Albanese in Beijing in 2023, Xi famously invoked the proverb "when drinking water, one should not forget those who dug the well".
Labor is credited with that legacy, and Beijing has not hesitated to highlight it.
The Wong-Wang factor
Another crucial element in this evolving dynamic is the engagement between Wong and Wang.
Wang once passed along birthday wishes to Wong in person — an exceedingly rare personal touch from Chinese officials. (Supplied: Foreign Ministry of China/File)
The latest encounter was the eighth time the two foreign ministers have met since 2022, when the newly elected Albanese government made the first steps to stabilise what had become a rocky relationship during the previous Coalition government.
Each subsequent meeting chipped away at the issues that once hindered bilateral ties.
Tariffs on Australian exports like barley and wine were quietly lifted. Ministerial dialogue — frozen for years — was revived. Even travel restrictions on Australian tourists and business groups began to soften.
However, the hallmark of every negotiation had been China's explicit wish list, signposted to Australia's negotiators.
Since taking office as foreign affairs minister, Wong has demonstrated an ability to hold her ground on contentious issues with Beijing while maintaining an open channel for dialogue.
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It is unprecedented that Wang once passed along birthday wishes to Wong in person — an exceedingly rare personal touch from Chinese officials.
It points to a remarkable thaw in relations. Under the Morrison and Turnbull governments, high-level dialogue was often brushed aside or refused entirely, and it was widely reported that official phone calls went unanswered during the Coalition era.
Watching this reversal under Wong's stewardship suggests a willingness on Beijing's part to reset ties with a Labor face at the table.
It is no secret that under the Coalition government, Beijing wielded an array of economic and diplomatic "sticks".
Australian exports were hit with punitive tariffs, high-level dialogues vanished, and Chinese state-owned media unleashed a barrage of criticism at any perceived slight.
Under the Labor government, however, the approach has flipped to "carrots" by Beijing's top decision-makers.
With Albanese's success in the last election, Beijing eased trade restrictions, opened doors to ministerial talks, and engaged in warm diplomatic gestures.
Some interpret this shift as Beijing trying to engineer an Australian government more amenable to Chinese interests.
Observers also point to China's broader rivalry with the United States — Australia's key security ally — and see in Labor a better bet for pragmatic balance.
Labor's stance on issues like AUKUS remains firm, but the party's diplomatic style differs markedly from that of the previous administration.
While no one claims that Labor blindly aligns with Beijing, the tone of discussions — at least on the surface — has been considerably more cordial.
The naval flex near Tasmania
However, not all Beijing's actions are beneficial to Labor.Â
The timing of China's recent naval manoeuvres has not gone unnoticed.
China's recent live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea represent the farthest south a Chinese naval group has ever ventured in the region.
While some observers initially saw the timing as an attempt to underscore Australia's strategic balancing act ahead of the federal election, many China watchers believe the visit by the head of US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo — who was in Sydney around the same time — also played a role in this episode.
Paparo oversees the United States' preparations for any potential conflict with China and is regularly criticised by Beijing for his comments on the People's Liberation Army's presence in the South China Sea.
Beijing often stages displays of military strength to coincide with visits by senior US officials, underscoring its ability to project power into the South Pacific.
From a strictly legal standpoint, there was no violation of international law, as the warships exited Australia's exclusive economic zone before opening fire.
However, the underlying message remains: Beijing is normalising its naval presence in these waters and testing the responses of the US and its allies.
In this light, the exercises seem less about influencing the Australian electorate and more about sending a signal to Washington — though they do inevitably raise questions about the broader Australia-China relationship.
A measured response
For its part, the Albanese government has responded in kind with minimal fuss.
Officials noted their wish for more advanced warning to ensure commercial flights were not disrupted. They also reiterated Australia's commitment to freedom of navigation under UNCLOS.
There was little by way of outrage or condemnation, reflecting a carefully calibrated stance.
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More strident criticism could, after all, jeopardise ongoing conversations or other improvements in bilateral ties.
Meanwhile, the US has maintained relative silence, likely out of caution to avoid appearing to hold a double standard regarding its own presence in the South China Sea, a highly contested region of territorial dispute.
Both Labor and the Coalition also benefit from avoiding escalation.Â
There is, however, an undercurrent of concern that miscommunication or miscalculation at sea could lead to dangerous incidents — something Penny Wong reportedly raised with Wang Yi during their talks.
Yet questions remain about how far Beijing might go to encourage a Labor victory.Â
Security agencies continue to warn of coordinated foreign influence efforts, including cyber intrusions and strategic disinformation.
Meanwhile, the Coalition has been adjusting its stance on China. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton appeared to have moderated his tone compared to his earlier, more hawkish statements.Â
For instance, where he once warned Australians to "prepare for war" with Beijing, he has emphasised to Chinese Premier Li Qiang that he was willing to maintain open channels of communication and promote the continuous deepening of relations between the two countries.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton's tone on China has shifted since last election. (AAP: Russell Freeman)
This shift reflects the growing impression that the Coalition wants to project a balanced but firm approach to China.Â
Some analysts argue that, while both Dutton and Albanese aim to protect Australia's core interests, they employ different strategies: Dutton foregrounds security concerns, while Albanese has focused on diplomatic restoration.
Whether this recalibrated stance represents a genuine shift or a tactical move remains unclear, but it underscores the Coalition's attempt to frame itself as both tough on China and responsive to evolving diplomatic realities.
Wang's "empty list" of demands might seem like a small detail, but in the world of diplomacy, it could be the most telling sign of all.
Whether this strategy will sway voters remains uncertain, but Beijing is clearly betting that a continued Labor government is the best route to maintain a cooperative relationship with one of America's key allies in the Indo-Pacific.