Iran’s support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah could end completely if Syrian President Bashar al-Assad falls. (Reuters: Mohamed Azakir)
The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is another major blow to Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance,” experts say.
Iran has for decades been building a network of like-minded militant groups and proxies to counter U.S and Israeli power in the Middle East.
But the alliance has weakened significantly over the past year.
Now that Assad, Iran’s longtime ally, has fallen and rebel groups opposed to Tehran have taken control of Damascus, the future of the resistance is in question.
Why the Axis needed Syria
Besides Iran, Syria is the only state actor in the resistance axis, joined by proxy groups such as Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Syria plays a vital role in the alliance and is often referred to as the movement’s “key chain.
It is this vital geographical link that allows Iran to deliver weapons and other supplies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Ali Mamuri, a Middle East researcher at Deakin University, said Assad, who came to power in 2000, played a largely curatorial role.
He has allowed multiple militant groups, including Iraqi militias, Hezbollah and other members of Iran’s proxy network, to operate freely in much of the country and to funnel weapons, money and aid throughout the region.
Pedestrians walk through the empty streets of the Syrian capital as a banner of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hangs from the facade of a building in Damascus. (AP: Omar Sanadiki)
Dr Mamuri said without the Assad regime, support for Hezbollah, Iran’s main ally, would drop significantly.
“Hezbollah will be even more isolated in Lebanon,” he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
“The country is already facing social pressure, and it is also facing military pressure from Israel, which will bring them more crises.”
Proxies already weakened
Danny Sitrinovitz, a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program, said Assad’s fall was “another nail in the coffin of the Iranian resistance axis”.
Israel has already inflicted significant damage on Hamas and Hezbollah.
What is Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance?
Pictured: Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” is dedicated to countering U.S and Israeli influence in the Middle East. Here are the group’s main players and their roles in the current conflict.
On October 7 last year, Israel attacked the Gaza Strip, and Hamas was immediately hit hard by Israel in the Gaza Strip for more than a year.
According to Israeli authorities, the attacks on Israel left about 1,200 people dead, with another 250 taken hostage in Gaza.
Subsequent Israeli attacks on Gaza have claimed the lives of more than 43,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health.
In July, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated while stationed in Iran.
He was replaced by Yahya Sinwar, who was also killed in an Israeli attack on the Gaza Strip.
Sinwar was described as one of the masterminds of the October 7 attack.
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in fighting in southern Gaza. (AP: Adel Hana)
The Gaza war sparked another war in Lebanon, where Israel launched a heavy air and ground assault against Hezbollah.
Israel says its offensive in Lebanon is in response to ongoing cross-border rocket attacks by Hezbollah, which have displaced thousands of people in northern Israel.
Several senior commanders and officials of the militant group were killed.
The group’s longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated in an Israeli raid in September.
“Assad’s fall is a fatal blow to Iran’s influence in the Middle East, after Hezbollah suffered a heavy blow from Israel,” Sitrinovich said.
“There is certainly a connection between the two, because it is clear that Hezbollah’s weakness, and especially the disappearance of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who was himself committed to saving Assad, hastened the fall of the Syrian regime.”
A poster of the assassinated leader of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah. (Reuters: Amr Abdallah Dalsh)
Iran itself is also becoming increasingly vulnerable.
Several influential IRGC officers have been killed in airstrikes in Damascus and Beirut in recent months.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a series of Israeli attacks on Iranian military bases in October disrupted Tehran’s ability to produce key weapons and destroyed many key air defense assets).
Axis failed to back Assad
The rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized the capital Damascus from the Assad regime this week, ending Syria’s 13-year civil war.
The group says it is currently establishing a “national salvation government”.
How Assad’s regime collapsed in days
Photos show a truck pulling the head of a toppled statue of the late Syrian President Hafez al-Assad
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his family ruled Syria for half a century before their regime quickly collapsed. But there were some key moments before Assad’s fall.
Early in the Syrian civil war, when it seemed that Assad might be overthrown, Iran and Hezbollah sent fighters to Syria in the name of defending Syria’s Shia holy sites.
Russia later joined the airstrikes.
The campaign has recaptured territory, although Syria remains divided between government-controlled and rebel-held areas.
But the speed of Assad’s fall over the past week shows how much he relied on Iranian and Russian support, and how little they provided it when it mattered.
Syrian opposition fighters stand on top of a seized military armored vehicle on the outskirts of Hama, Syria, earlier this month. (AP Photo/Ghaith Alsayed)
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but has remained mired in it for years.
James Gelvin, a UCLA history professor, said Iran had its own problems to deal with as the resistance axis “has almost completely collapsed.
“All the other members of the axis that Syria depended on have been severely damaged or weakened,” he told ABC’s World Today.
“That’s why the military moved so quickly.”
What’s next for the alliance?
Sitrinovich said the fall of the Assad regime showed that Iran’s ability to influence the situation in the Middle East was limited without the support of Hezbollah.
“Now, Iran must chart a new course and find a solution that will enhance its own ability to deter Israel and the United States without the real support of its proxies,” he said.
For Israel, disrupting Iran’s regional network has long been a major goal.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Assad’s fall a “historic day” and said it was “a direct result of the strong actions we have taken against Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main backers”.
Analysts say it will now be difficult for Iran to rebuild Hamas and Hezbollah. (ABC News: Matt Brown)
Dr Mamuri said Iran’s influence in the region had been severely weakened, making it more vulnerable to direct conflict with Israel.
But the Axis of Resistance is unlikely to collapse.
How the chaos in Syria will change the Middle East
Photo shows President Bashar al-Assad and President Vladimir Putin shaking hands inside a Kremlin conference room.
Whatever the ultimate outcome of Syria’s chaos, the past week has been one of extraordinary turmoil.
“It has a very strong organization, very strong personnel and fighters, a very workable system of operations, and a strong hierarchy,” he said.
“So it’s unlikely that it will fall.
“But it will face significant challenges in terms of its political presence in both the Syrian and Lebanese governments, and in terms of its military resistance to Israel.”
Hezbollah members salute at the funeral of a Hezbollah member in Lebanon. (Reuters: Aziz Taher)
It will be difficult for Iran to rebuild Hamas and Hezbollah, so analysts believe Iran may prioritize shifting the center of gravity of the resistance axis eastward.
What is Hezbollah and why is it involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict?
Photo shows three Hezbollah flags flying above a poster depicting Lebanese Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
Here’s what you need to know about Hezbollah and its role in the conflict.
Dr Mamuri said Iran would be able to exploit its links with Yemen and Iraq and its armed groups, including the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF).
The size of the PMF is much debated, with some estimates suggesting it has as many as 200,000 fighters.
“I think they (Iran) are still dealing with these events, but I don’t think they are without options,” he said.
Houthi supporters hold a rally to condemn the US and UK air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. (Reuters: Khaled Abdullah)
Iran’s nuclear threat
Iran still maintains control of its nuclear program, even though it insists it enriches uranium for peaceful purposes.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warned last week that Iran was preparing to “significantly” increase its stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium.
Currently, its nuclear program has uranium enrichment levels of 60%, which is just one step away from the 90% enrichment level for weapons grade.
A recent report from the U.S intelligence community states that “Iran is not developing a nuclear weapon,” but that “it has taken some actions that would be more conducive to producing one if it so desired”.
Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), said Iran was likely concerned about its own stability and focused on preventing a popular uprising at home.
But there is also the threat of nuclear escalation in response to Israel’s “more assertive stance”.
“It needs to somehow redress the imbalance that has arisen as the resistance axis appears to be falling apart so it can race to get nuclear weapons,” he said.
“[US] President Biden or President Trump needs to pack their bags quickly to prevent this from happening.”
However, Dr Mamuri said the Iranians knew where to draw the line.
“I think they will respond to the current and future situation with pragmatic wisdom, but also with resistance,” he said.
“They don’t act frantically. They don’t act without strategy.”
ABC/AP