will head to the polls for the next federal election sometime in the next four months – although when exactly it will be held isn't set in stone.Speculation about a potential early election has ebbed and flowed in the second half of the Labor government's term, and sparked up again when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced two candidates for key Tasmanian seats late last year.This is what we know about when the election can and will be called.
The next federal election will be held sometime in the next four months. We're just not sure exactly when. (SMH)
When is the latest the federal election can be held?
There are a series of requirements in the Constitution that set out when an election has to be held.Terms in the House of Representatives run for three years, and an election for that house must be held no later than 68 days after they expire.This time around, those terms expire on July 25, 2025, and the last Saturday in the following 68-day period is September 27.We'll definitely head to the ballot box before then, though, thanks to the Senate.Half of all senators' terms will expire on June 30, 2025, and an election has to be held for those seats in the preceding year.Once you factor in various technicalities and practicalities around swearing in, as well as the fact House of Representatives and half-Senate elections are almost always held simultaneously, the latest date the next federal election can be held is May 17, 2025.
House of Representatives terms expire in July, but there will be an election before then. (Alex Ellinghausen/SMH)
What about a double dissolution election?
but there's now next to no chance of that happening.A double dissolution election occurs when both houses of parliament are dissolved and every seat is contested (as opposed to regular elections, when only half the Senate goes to the polls) after a piece of legislation has been repeatedly rejected.The latest both houses can be dissolved this term is January 24. If that occurs, the election will follow sometime between February 22 and March 29.However, the government was able to get a huge raft of legislation through the Senate on the last sitting day of 2024, effectively ending any chance of such a move.It's also worth noting that double dissolution elections are quite rare.While one was held as recently as 2016, only six others have been called in Australian history.
Anthony Albanese issued a veiled threat about a double dissolution in September, but the chances of that happening now have all but faded. (Alex Ellinghausen)
What has the government said?
In his September comments, Albanese threatened that the rejection of the government's Help To Buy housing plan and two other pieces of legislation could provide the trigger for a double dissolution, but they've now either passed or been dropped altogether.For the most part, though, he has spoken more about his support for longer parliamentary terms than the chance of calling an early election.
May 17 is the latest an election can be held. (Scott McNaughton/The Age)"It's the media that seem to be obsessed by the date of elections. I have read the election would be in August, September, November, December 7, probably passed now," Albanese said in November."I support four-year terms, and I wish it was four-year fixed terms so this obsession with dates that begins halfway through a term didn't continue."While there has also been speculation that an election will be called before parliament returns for 2025 in early February, Albanese has said both houses will sit again.If parliament does go through the first full sitting period of the year, which runs from February 4-13, that means the prime minister won't call the election until mid-February at the earliest.If it is called around then, polling day could end up falling in late March or early-to-mid-April – avoiding both a clash with the Western Australian state election on March 8 and the need to hold a pre-election budget, currently set down for March 25.The government's policy to reduce student debt has also been used as a bit of a clue around the election timing.Albanese said the plan would come into effect on June 1, 2025, and that it would be the first legislation brought by Labor if it wins the next election – a very tight turnaround unless there's either an early election or the laws are backdated.
Albanese appears to be fed up with questions about the election date. (Alex Ellinghausen)But Health Minister Mark Butler said that shouldn't be used as an indicator that an early election could be on the cards."You can all read tea leaves about election timing," he said."I'm sure that will happen for the coming joyous weeks and months as we lead into the next election. I'm not going to add to it."I think the prime minister's statement this morning simply reflects the priority we give to relieving financial pressure on young Australians."
