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Ozempic and similar medications are revolutionising weight loss, with far-reaching economic effects

Ms. Senn and her husband spend about $920 a month on Wegovy. (ABC News: Guido Salazar)

In short:

A Citigroup report found that the U.S economy is already experiencing changes in the food and fashion industries after the widespread use of weight loss pills

Australia has been slower to take up fitness than the US, but one fitness business owner says she’s already feeling the effects of a drop in customers

What’s next?

Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are expected to use diet pills over the next decade, which could boost productivity

Just six months ago, just keeping track of her children’s growth would have seemed an impossible task for Sandra Senn.

Today, she walks with her family, runs with them, and keeps up with everyone.

She twirled around her eight-year-old daughter, Murphy, and played soccer with her son, Garrison, in the hot midday sun.

“It’s really a 180-degree turn,” the mother of two said.

“My son is a sports fanatic – he loves to play football and basketball, and I won’t play with him anyway. I’m too tired.”

Ms Senn and her husband started taking the diet pills five months ago. They say it has completely changed their lives, from diet and exercise to shopping habits and career success.

“It’s truly magical,” said Ms Mori, who lost 20kg in five months.

The couple started taking the diet pill Mounjaro, but after experiencing side effects like gastrointestinal problems and nausea, they switched to Wegovy, which costs $460 a month.

The active ingredient in most weight loss pills, including Mounjaro, Wegovy and Ozempic, mimics a hormone called glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1). This peptide slows digestion and sends fullness signals to the brain, causing people to eat less.

Ozempic and similar drugs are revolutionizing weight loss, with far-reaching economic impacts

Currently, GLP-1 drugs must be injected, but that could change when patents on the drugs expire and companies start working on pills. (ABC News: Rachel Clayton)

The growing popularity of GLP-1 drugs has done more than just change waistlines.

The drugs have a knock-on effect on the U.S economy because of their high use by the American population — about 7 million Americans currently take them, a number that is expected to rise to 24 million by 2035, according to Morgan Stanley.

Ms. Mori said that now that she has more energy and less “food noise” taking up her mental space, her small business has seen progress.

“Revenue has doubled in the last six months and we’ve launched new projects. So the growth has been pretty significant.”

Her shopping habits have also changed.

“[Food] shopping has gone from about $400 a week to about $150 to $200. That’s a huge reduction.”

The newfound confidence even inspired her to book a Christmas vacation to Fiji, something she said she had previously been too scared to do.

Businesses adapt to Ozempic effect

Adam Spielman is Citigroup’s head of future health and co-author of a report examining the scope of GLP-1 drug adoption in the U.S and its likely future commercial impact.

Spielman said he was “absolutely confident” GLP-1 would have “a really profound impact on the Australian economy”, especially after the drug’s patent expires in 2031, allowing more competitors to enter the market.

Ozempic and similar drugs are revolutionizing weight loss, with far-reaching economic impacts

Adam Spielman co-authored a report exploring the broader economic impact that weight-loss pills could have. (ABC News: Adrian Wilson)

“That’s when you’ll see generic drugs coming in and they’ll be a lot cheaper .. they’ll still be prescription drugs in Australia but they’ll be more accessible.”

Citigroup’s report “Obesity and Beyond” predicts that the global obesity rate could reach hundreds of millions in the next few years, which will have a significant impact on global productivity and health economies.

Mr Spielman said a good example right now was the increase in visits to the doctor.

He said overweight people are often reluctant to see a doctor because they are tired of being lectured about their weight.

He said when people start managing their weight, they are more likely to see a doctor and therefore more likely to receive help for conditions associated with weight gain, such as kidney disease and sleep apnea.

Is your business affected by GLP-1 drugs? Contact Rachel Clayton at [email protected] or [email protected]

“In the short term, total demand for obesity-related products is actually going up. People are living longer. People are interacting with the health-care system longer,” Mr. Spielman said.

“You would hope that over time there would be fewer people with diabetes and fewer people with kidney disease. But over the next five years, the demand for these types of products will increase.”

ResMed, an Australian medical device company with a market cap of $56 billion that makes CPAP machines for treating sleep apnea, saw its shares fall earlier this year, largely due to the belief that GLP-1 could reduce the number of people who suffer from sleep apnea.

ResMed chief executive Mick Farrell told ABC’s The Business that the opposite was true, with the company’s data showing that sleep apnea patients taking GLP-1 drugs were almost 11.5 times more likely to use a CPAP machine.

Food and fashion reshaped

Mr Spielman said the food and fashion industries would also be transformed.

Some studies suggest that GLP-1 may change food preferences, reducing cravings for processed foods while increasing cravings for fresh fruits and vegetables.

Ozempic and similar drugs are revolutionizing weight loss, with far-reaching economic impacts

Food preferences change in people taking GLP-1 drugs. (ABC News)

Mr Spielman said: “Most people who take GLP-1 reduce their calorie intake by about 30 to 35 per cent.

“Let’s say 20 per cent of Australians end up taking these medications. Simple math will tell you that means, roughly speaking, total calorie consumption in Australia would fall by about 6 per cent.”

He said the reductions would be uneven across the industry, with fruit and vegetable growers likely to benefit.

“But if you’re a company like McDonald’s or Burger King, it’s a completely different story,” he added.

Ozempic and similar drugs are revolutionizing weight loss, with far-reaching economic impacts

Citigroup finds GLP-1 drugs are changing the average clothing size of women in Manhattan. (ABC News)

In the fashion space, some New York stores have seen a decrease in the average size of women’s shirts, Mr. Spielman observed.

“It’s gotten smaller. The bottom line is that people are happier with their body shape, so they’re more likely to go out and buy clothes.”

‘People see quick and easy’

For Queensland weight loss coach and personal trainer Lauren Antonenko, the rise of GLP-1 drugs has changed the way she does business.

Ozempic and similar drugs are revolutionizing weight loss, with far-reaching economic impacts

Lauren Antonenko believes she is retaining fewer clients because of the popularity of diet pills. (ABC News: Edward Gill)

Ms. Antonenko said some clients stopped contacting her after their initial consultation, later discovering they had started using diet pills and no longer needed her services.

“I met those people a few months later and they had lost a lot of weight, and they were very shy and said, ‘I’ve been using diet pills,'” she recounted.

“Diet pills have a lot of side effects. The biggest challenge we face is that, you know, people think that diet pills are .. quick and easy.”

She said she had hoped the drugs would be “a passing fad.” But as that became less likely, she shifted her marketing focus to “working in synergy with diet pills”.

Ozempic and similar drugs are revolutionizing weight loss, with far-reaching economic impacts

She is tailoring her services to benefit people who use these drugs. (ABC News: Edward Gill)

Ms Antonenko said: “The fitness industry really needs to help people understand that it’s the combination of the two that leads to lasting vitality.

“When people finally lose some body fat, it may have prevented them from having the confidence and courage to walk into the gym in the first place.”

A business opportunity

Despite the rapid adoption of these drugs in developed countries, challenges exist.

Common side effects of these drugs include nausea, gastrointestinal problems, and headaches.

Ozempic ‘oops babies’ should make women think twice

Photo shows the logo of four Ozempic pens, three of which have had their brand names removed

Ozempic and similar drugs are revolutionizing weight loss, with far-reaching economic impacts

Yet the makers of the popular drug, taken by millions of women worldwide, do not collect data on its possible effects on female reproductive organs or offspring.

Due to the rapid weight loss, users often lose a significant amount of muscle mass.

An Australian business profited from this.

Evolt makes 3D body scanners that analyze body composition by running an electric current through the feet and hands.

Chief Executive Officer Ed Zouroudis said he had seen a surge in demand from GPs, beauty clinics and telehealth providers since sales of the GLP-1 drug began to take off.

“We’ve had a huge uptick in business,” Mr Zuludis said.

Zuroudis said the devices were once used mainly in the fitness industry, but are now increasingly being ordered by medical clinics around the country to monitor patients’ medications.

Machine sales in the September quarter increased by 66.

But he was unsure whether demand in Australia would reach the same level.

“I think we have a much stricter regulation here, and we always have,” he said.

“The TGA (Therapeutic Goods Administration) in Australia is very strict. So I don’t think we’ll reach the levels of the United States where it’s very easy to get the drug at the moment.”

The impact on productivity

Excess weight is associated with multiple chronic diseases, including cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and diabetes.

A 2024 study by Deakin University found that overweight and obesity cost the Australian economy nearly $12 billion in 2018. A 2010 study estimated the total direct cost of overweight and obesity in Australian adults aged 30 and over to be $21 billion in 2005.

But some economists warn that this doesn’t mean that exposing large swaths of the population to diet pills will save billions of dollars. In fact, it could cost the country just as much.

“If we prevent patients from developing chronic diseases associated with obesity, these people will develop other diseases. For example, the risk of cancer increases with age, so we may see an increase in cancer rates,” said Jonathan Cannon, a health economist at Flinders University.

“So I think we need to be more realistic about the potential cost savings.”

These medicines may also need to be included on the PBS to be widely available, as a large proportion of overweight and obese people face socioeconomic disadvantage.

“They (PBS) are considering subsidies for a wider range of people, but so far they have decided that the prices the pharmaceutical companies are asking are not commensurate with the benefits,” Dr Cannon said.

“These drugs have significant benefits, so we should find a way to fund them, but it does require a lot of negotiation with the pharmaceutical companies.”

Why big health and food companies fear Ozempic

Photo shows Ozempic on display at a pharmacy in Provo

Ozempic and similar drugs are revolutionizing weight loss, with far-reaching economic impacts

Medicine has not seen a bigger “accident” since the advent of Viagra, but if Ozempic can meet the challenge posed by obesity in recent decades, it will have far-reaching consequences for the global economy, writes Ian Verrender.

Dr Cannon said the benefits to the economy as a whole were difficult to predict, but he did believe there would be “some benefits”.

“The extent of this benefit is uncertain, but I think it will be significant.

“For example, Australia’s fertility rate is falling and we need a larger workforce to look after the older population. So I think this could have important benefits.”

Mr Spielman agreed.

“Some doctors say it will extend human lifespan. If you believe that’s true, it will have a huge impact on Australian pensions, insurance, seniors housing – it’s a really big impact.

“They’re going to change society. It’s going to take us decades to really understand what they’re doing.”

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