Is ANZ the best choice in the banking sector?
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ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares regularly trade at a different price-earnings (P/E) ratio compared to other major ASX bank shares. Investors often like to equate a lower P/E ratio to being better value.
It’s common to see ANZ shares trade at a lower P/E ratio than other banks, particularly Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA).
It’ll be interesting to compare how ANZ shares are valued to CBA shares, as well as National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) shares and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC) shares.
Let’s compare what the current valuations are, according to forecasts from UBS.
ASX bank share valuations
While earnings forecasts are not guaranteed to come true, I think some analysts’ forecasts are generally fairly close to what the numbers end up being.
UBS predicts that ANZ could generate $7.2 billion of net profit in FY25. That means the ANZ share price is valued at 12x FY25’s estimated earnings.
The broker forecasts that CBA could generate a net profit of $10.3 billion in FY25, which is 25x FY25’s estimated earnings.
UBS is projecting that Westpac could make $7.04 billion of net profit in the 2025 financial year. This puts the Westpac share price at 16x FY25’s estimated earnings.
The broker suggests that NAB may generate $7.25 billion of net profit. That means the NAB share price is valued at 15x FY25’s estimated earnings.
It’s clear that ANZ shares are trading at a cheaper earnings multiple than peers. So, if investors are looking for the major bank with the lowest P/E ratio, ANZ is the winner.
But, there are reasons why investors may want to pay more for other banks.
Why ANZ shares may not be a great buy
UBS is expecting the profit of CBA, NAB, and Westpac to rise in each of the upcoming financial years between FY25 and FY29.
However, according to UBS, ANZ shareholders could see their bank’s profit decline in FY26 and fall below $7 billion by FY28.
ANZ’s leadership may be distracted by the recent acquisition of Suncorp Bank, which could take significant attention and efforts to integrate that business.
Another negative is that ANZ’s dividends are not fully franked, so the taxation benefits are less useful than those from CBA, Westpac, and NAB. In my mind, NAB and Westpac shares would make a better buy than ANZ if their profits grow and ANZ’s don’t.
Motley Fool contributor Tristan Harrison has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia’s parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.