Weather system has stalled, BoM says, but it’s still on track to cross the coast at category-two strength
Queenslanders in the path of Tropical Cyclone Alfred could face a further 24-hour wait before the system makes landfall, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
The 3.8 million residents of south-east Queensland have been advised to hunker down in their homes from Thursday. Some in areas at risk of a severe storm surge were advised to leave before the worst conditions. Schools were closed and public transport halted.
Alfred had been predicted to cross the coast on Thursday night or in the early hours of Friday morning. The bureau now says its modelling shows the cyclone’s ominous progress towards the coast will be slower and it will probably hit heavily populated coastal areas later on Friday.
It’s possible Alfred might not make landfall until Saturday.
The slower-than-predicted progress would not affect the cyclone’s intensity and it was expected to remain a category-two system – possibly intensifying to a “high-end” category-two storm in the coming days.
“The possibility of Alfred reaching low end category three strength before making landfall is decreasing,” the bureau said.
The Queensland premier, David Crisafulli, told ABC TV the delay “gives people that little bit more time if they haven’t fully got ready, to get ready”.
“The system is still real and it’s still a threat. I just got briefed there was a wave recorded off Main beach of the Gold Coast overnight of 12.3 metres. Now that’s the highest ever recorded. It remains a real threat. All the models show it’s heading into the coast.”
Conditions in south-east Queensland were eerily calm on Thursday morning but communities in northern New South Wales had been receiving heavy rain. Some homes in the northern rivers had lost power.
The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said he had spoken with the mayor of Lismore, Steve Krieg, overnight.
“He spoke about what a tough night he’s had with himself and his partner. They are still in recovery mode. They’ve had hit after hit after hit,” Albanese said.
“At the worst of times we always see the best of Australian character. I said yesterday that there were no political parties in this process and there are no borders. Tropical Cyclone Alfred certainly does not recognise any borders and nor should the government’s response.”
The predicted cyclone track to the coast remained consistent, with the bureau stating it should cross somewhere between Maroochydore and Caloundra.
Helen Reid, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the delayed track could be troublesome for communities along the coastline, whose natural defences were being eroded by strong surf conditions.
“It’s given us an extra period of coastal erosion,” Reid said. “That sense of coastal protection will be different to what it would otherwise be.”
Reid said Alfred’s progress had stalled overnight but it would probably continue its predicted track to the coast.
“It was making a steady track, but we did see a period of stagnation of movement overnight, and it does look that it will start a more distinct movement to the west [on Thursday],” Reid said.
Parts of northern NSW, already receiving heavy rainfall, would probably receive more in the coming days. Reid said that for communities in south-east Queensland in the path of the cyclone, the impacts would probably be similar to those predicted, just delayed.
An updated Bureau of Meteorology briefing from early Thursday said the models – which had previously largely been consistent in showing Alfred’s speed and path to the coast – had shown “greater variation in the strength of the steering flow”.
“The consensus is now for slower westward motion, and as a result a delayed time of coastal crossing,” it said.
“The latest track indicates a coastal crossing is more likely during daylight hours on Friday, however the spread of guidance now includes the possibility of crossing being delayed until Saturday.”