As the official start of the election campaign nears, almost one in two Australians don’t know who they will vote for or might change their mind
More than half of Australians believe last month’s cash rate cut was too little too late and a sign the Labor government’s economic plan is not working, but voters think Anthony Albanese is better placed than Peter Dutton to deliver cost-of-living relief and higher wages and safeguard Medicare.
Voters have again marked down Albanese, with his net approval rating dipping to minus eight in the latest Guardian Essential poll. But Australians believe his party would be better – or at least no worse – than the Coalition on some key issues.
The Essential poll of 1,150 people conducted last week revealed almost one in two people don’t know who they will vote for or might change their mind.
The poll also found the major parties split on the 2PP+ voting metric, with the Coalition leading 48-47, and another 5% saying “don’t know”. Last month’s poll delivered a 48-48 result and a 4% “don’t know”, in this edition.
The poll’s “primary+” measure found 29% of people would give their first preference vote to Labor, down 1% from last month’s 30%; 35% of people would give their vote to the Coalition parties, 12% to the Greens and 19% to a minor party or independent.
Albanese’s approval rating dropped two points, to 41%, while his disapproval ticked up one point to 49%, for a net approval rating of minus eight. Dutton’s approval remained unchanged at 41%, while his disapproval decreased one point to 44%, for a net approval of minus three.
Asked whether Australia was on the right direction or on the wrong track, 34% of voters said right direction (up three points) while 49% said wrong track (down two points).
The federal election is due to be held by 17 May, and speculation is growing that Albanese could declare the start of the five-week official campaign period this Sunday or Monday.
The Essential poll found 52% of people said they knew who they would vote for and wouldn’t change their mind. But another 35% said they might change their vote, and 13% said they hadn’t yet decided – for a total of 48% of voters who were either open to changing their vote or didn’t yet know how they would mark their ballot paper.
Essential Media is among several research firms working with the Labor party’s election campaign, alongside Pyxis Polling and Insights, which is behind the Newspoll. Guardian Australia has reported Essential is one of the companies running focus groups for the ALP.
There had been speculation Albanese could call the election last week, off the back of the Reserve Bank of Australia cutting the official cash rate for the first time since 2020, as the government touted its economic plan and credentials.
However, only 44% of people agreed with the statement that the interest rate cut was welcome relief and showed the government’s economic management was working, while 56% agreed with the statement that the cut was too little too late and showed the government’s economic approach was not working.
But on separate questions about which party – Labor or the Coalition – voters trusted on key issues, the government was favoured on central economic questions, though even more voters believed there were no differences between the major parties.
Labor was trusted more to support higher wages by 38% of voters, with the Coalition at 18%, and 44% saying “no difference”; 33% favoured Labor to address cost-of-living pressures, compared with 27% for the Coalition and 39% responding no difference; on who was best to manage the economy, the Coalition was slightly ahead of Labor, 30-29%, with 41% saying no difference.
After a week dominated by the government’s $8.5bn Medicare bulk-billing pledge – quickly matched by the Coalition – Labor’s biggest lead among voter perceptions was on funding Medicare. On this issue, 40% of voters backed the government, 20% backed the Coalition, and 40% responded no difference.