Greens say they will support the bill, which is designed to bolster on-shore processing of critical minerals
Labor is on track to pass the centrepiece of its Future Made in Australia plan, but other parts of its legislative agenda are either in doubt or dead in the water before what could be the final parliamentary sittings before the election.
Parliament will return from the summer break on Tuesday, with the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, hoping to use the coming fortnight in Canberra to help launch his re-election bid.
Labor will prioritise passing the main pillar of its flagship Future Made in Australia plan – $13.7bn worth of tax breaks intended to turbocharge on-shore processing of critical minerals and green hydrogen production.
The government has argued the incentives are necessary to kickstart industries crucial to the green energy transition and to protect Australia from China’s stranglehold of the global critical minerals supply chain.
But the Coalition’s opposition to what it has described as “billions for billionaires” has also given Labor political ammunition to paint the opposition leader, Peter Dutton, as “anti-mining” in the resource-rich and electorally significant states of Western Australia and Queensland.
The Coalition’s position means Labor needs the Greens and three crossbenchers to get the laws through the Senate.
In a strong sign the Greens will support the legislation, leader Adam Bandt said the party “support the principle of this bill” as negotiations on the finer details ongoing.
“In many parts of the country the best job for a coalminer is another mining job, and the Greens have long called for measures to support the responsible growth of the critical minerals sector,” Bandt said.
Guardian Australia understands crossbenchers David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie agreed to support the bill as part of a household electrification deal announced earlier this week.
The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies (AMEC) – which led the industry campaign for the tax credits – said it was imperative the laws pass.
“Critical minerals underpin our future energy needs, and if Australia wants to compete, rather than talk about competing, we need to pass the bill now,” AMEC’s acting chief executive, Neil Van Drunen, said.
Labor’s legislation to enshrine fee-free Tafe places also has the Greens’ backing while the Coalition are prepared to support hate speech laws, provided threats and attacks against places of worship are explicitly outlawed.
But the fate of other pieces of Labor’s agenda is uncertain ahead of what will be the final parliamentary sittings if Albanese – as has been widely speculated – calls the election before the 25 March budget.
The major parties were on the brink of a deal to cap political donations and spending late last year before the special minister of state, Don Farrell, pulled the legislation at the 11th hour.
Guardian Australia understands Farrell continued discussions with the Coalition over summer.
Asked on Wednesday if a deal had been struck, Albanese said: “No, at this point in time”.
The caps won’t come into effect until the federal election due in 2028.
However, the government wants them passed immediately to avoid the prospect of having to negotiate with a hung parliament, where the Greens and teals could torpedo changes viewed as a threat to minor parties and independents.
Labor’s proposal to double the tax rate for earnings on superannuation balances above $3m is listed on a draft Senate program, but doesn’t have enough crossbench support.
Legislation to establish a federal environment agency is also listed for debate on Thursday as Tanya Plibersek holds out hope of passing her signature bill.
The environment minister’s office has sounded out miners about potential compromises to win their support for a federal EPA.
But there remains no clear path for Labor to get the laws through the Senate, with the Coalition firmly opposed and the Greens holding out for a blanket ban on native forest logging.