Liberals jostle for high-profile portfolio vacated by Simon Birmingham, with announcement expected over Australia Day long weekend
Peter Dutton is expected to use the Australia Day long weekend to finally reshuffle his shadow cabinet, with the decision over who to fill the foreign affairs portfolio threatening to stir internal tensions in the lead-up to the federal election.
The shadow foreign minister, Simon Birmingham, will formally resign from federal parliament next week to start a role at ANZ bank in February, creating a deadline for the opposition leader to rejig his frontbench ahead of the election, due on or before 17 May.
The manager of opposition business, Paul Fletcher, is also retiring at the election, opening up a second vacancy in the shadow cabinet.
Senior Coalition sources expect the reshuffle – which opposition MPs were expecting to occur as far back as mid-December – to be announced over the Australia Day long weekend.
Several shadow assistant ministers are also retiring, giving Dutton an opportunity to promote fresh faces from the backbench.
Four names being mentioned internally as Birmingham’s possible successor are the shadow home affairs minister, James Paterson, shadow immigration minister, Dan Tehan, former frontbencher Julian Leeser and the Liberal deputy leader, Sussan Ley.
Backbencher Dave Sharma has also been discussed, although it appears unlikely the former ambassador to Israel would be elevated straight into cabinet.
Liberal party convention dictates the deputy leader has their pick of portfolios, meaning if Ley wants foreign affairs it should be hers to claim.
However some of Ley’s colleagues believe she will be overlooked after past statements in support of Palestine resurfaced just as she began privately expressing interest in the role.
In what some Liberal insiders believe was part of an orchestrated attempt to undermine her case for the portfolio, Sky News this month broadcast a story reporting that Ley failed to declare a 2011 trip to the West Bank paid for by the Palestinian Authority.
Guardian Australia understands Ley’s office investigated the trip and found the lack of declaration was due to an “administrative oversight”.
Ley has been in lock-step with Dutton’s pro-Israel position throughout the Gaza conflict.
One Liberal source said if Ley – the party’s most senior woman – was refused the foreign affairs portfolio it would “destabilise” an otherwise united Liberal team in an election year.
Paterson is considered the strongest candidate for a promotion, but senior Liberal sources say Dutton would be reluctant to move him out of home affairs, particularly as law and order and antisemitism shape as election issues.
Tehan has the credentials for the job as a former trade minister and diplomat but, as one Liberal source noted, is facing a fight just to retain his seat in regional Victoria.
The other main contender is Leeser, who quit the shadow cabinet in April 2023 to campaign for a yes vote in the voice to parliament referendum.
That decision irked colleagues but Leeser, who is Jewish, has rebuilt trust internally with his strong support for Israel and condemnation of antisemitic attacks in Australia.
The shadow housing minister, Michael Sukkar, is tipped to take over from Fletcher as manager of opposition business.