In the new poker game of international politics, Donald Trump is dealing the cards and Vladimir Putin has blinked and made a concession.
Under pressure from Trump, Putin has now talked for the first time about the reality of a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine as outlined by the US president.
But can Putin be trusted?
"To take what Putin has said at face value is beyond foolish," Kyle Wilson, one of Australia's foremost Russia experts who has worked in Moscow and advised the Australian government on Russia, told the ABC.
"The tactic is of course to appear reasonable while setting preconditions for negotiations which are unacceptable."
Putin put on the record his preparedness for a ceasefire — then came his real position. (Reuter: Maxim Shemetov)
The latest development in a possible ceasefire in Ukraine came after the disastrous meeting Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy had in the White House with Trump.
As discordant as that was, because of that meeting the dynamic surrounding Ukraine has completely changed.
Until then, both Russia and Ukraine had been locked in what looked like it could be a long-term quagmire — a 1,200 kilometre-long killing field for hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians and Russians.
Following that White House meeting, Trump ordered US military aid and intelligence to Ukraine to be cut. Had the US continued with those cuts, Ukraine's death warrant may well have been signed. It's unlikely that Ukraine could have kept Russia's army at bay, even with increased European aid.
After essentially being ordered to leave the White House because he made clear that he was sceptical that Putin would adhere to any ceasefire, Zelenskyy re-grouped.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy travelled to Saudi Arabia for peace talks. Â (Reuters: Saudi Press Agency)
He clearly learnt how not to handle Trump, and flew to Saudi Arabia determined to salvage Ukraine's relationship with the US.
In Saudi Arabia, he told US officials he was prepared to agree to a ceasefire. That was the one word that Trump wanted to hear – for a deal-maker such as Trump to think that one party to a conflict was not even prepared to come to the table was not a position Zelenskyy or Ukrainians wanted to be in.
Trump had played hard — for the week or so that the US had cut military aid and intelligence, Ukrainians felt the bitter cold of the reality that Putin's army would continue its grinding, relentless push towards Kyiv.
Shifting Trump's angry gaze
In Saudi Arabia, Zelenskyy did not commit to any conditions, but he clearly realised he was being portrayed by the main financier of Ukraine's war against Russia as an intransigent opposed to a ceasefire.
So he agreed to Washington's proposal for a 30-day ceasefire during which a longer-term agreement could be discussed.
Zelenskyy realised that by doing this Trump's angry gaze would move from him to Putin.
After a shocking start to discussions with Trump that literally endangered his country's survival, Zelenskyy pivoted and pulled off a strategic masterstroke: suddenly, Russia and Putin were under pressure.
The shift in the dynamics of the issue can be seen in the way Putin is now on the defensive. He's now trying to argue that Ukraine was not authentic in its acceptance of the US proposal — that if it had been serious, it would have been constantly lobbying the US for such a proposal.
Putin told a news conference: "The meeting in Saudi Arabia between Ukraine and America might look like a decision taken by the Ukrainian side under American pressure.
"But we are absolutely convinced that the Ukrainian side should have asked Americans for this persistently, given the situation on the ground."
A worker cleans an area at a site of a Russian missile strike in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine, this week. (Reuters: Mykola Synelnykov)
Now, Trump's negotiator, Steven Witkoff, has flown to Moscow where he is attempting to put detail on a ceasefire proposal.
Before his meeting with Witkoff, Putin said that Russia agreed with the ceasefire proposal advocated by the US and accepted by Ukraine.
For the first time since Russia's invasion more than three years ago, both sides are now using the word ceasefire.
Like Zelenskyy, Putin is trying to play the Trump game. He doesn't want to fall into the trap Zelenskyy fell into in the White House of being seen as the obstacle to peace — but he also doesn't want to give up Russia's military advantage.
At the moment, Russia is winning on the battlefield. Russia is also delighted to have Trump in the White House.
The real Putin position
Tellingly, during a press conference yesterday Putin thanked Trump for his initiatives regarding a ceasefire and referred to "our American partners".
It's not often that a Russian leader refers to "our American partners".
But having put on the record his preparedness for a ceasefire, then came the real Putin position. He added: "This ceasefire should lead to an enduring peace and should remove the root causes of this crisis."
What we know about the ceasefire proposal
Photo shows A man peers out from a large broken window.
By "removing the root causes", Putin means that not only will Ukraine be denied any NATO membership — Trump has already said that Ukraine will not be admitted — but almost certainly that no NATO troops should be stationed in Ukraine as peacekeepers.
France and the UK have both said they would be willing to send peacekeepers, but it appears Putin will oppose that, at least initially.
In the small print of Putin's comments, he added conditions. Firstly, that Ukraine would get no more weapons. This would mean reverting to the ban on military aid that Trump imposed on Ukraine after the meeting in the White House, but which was restored when Zelenskyy said he was prepared to agree to a ceasefire.
Secondly, Putin also talked about Ukraine surrendering in Kursk — the one part of Russia that Ukrainian soldiers have taken.
And he said another condition would be no more mobilisation of Ukrainian soldiers — in other words, no more major call-outs for recruits, which Ukraine does every so often.
Some of these may merely be negotiating positions, but it indicates the difficulty there will be in trying to reach a longer-term agreement.
Trump said Putin's comments were promising "but not complete".Â
He added: "I'd love to meet with him or talk to him."
Trump's high-stakes gamble with Putin
Photo shows A composite image of three men
There's still a long way to go before there is any longer-term end to the war between Ukraine and Russia. With Trump, there's still a considerable "trust me" element.
When asked if he could guarantee that any ceasefire would really mean the end of hostilities, Trump replied: "When this gets done it will be done. They will all want to go home and get some rest. We'll make sure it doesn't happen."
How the US makes sure that doesn't happen is unclear.
But amid all the chaos of the first 50 days of the Trump administration, and in the full knowledge that this may go nowhere, the reality is that Donald Trump is closer now to the possibility of an end to the Ukraine war than his predecessor Joe Biden ever came.