ALP MPs acknowledge the fight in Perth’s outer suburbs will be tougher this federal election
Labor has secured another comfortable victory over the Liberals in Western Australia as the federal election looms.
While votes are still being counted, the state Labor government is on track to win 40 seats, with the Liberals trailing well behind on five and the Nationals expected to take four as of Sunday midday, according to the ABC. Ten seats are still too close to call.
The victory is another huge win for Labor’s state branch, securing its third term in government, but the results also represent a statewide swing against Labor of about 11% on a two-party-preferred margin.
It was widely tipped that Anthony Albanese would call the federal election by Monday after Labor’s west coast results but this was delayed by Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
With Australians now expected to go to the polls in May, here’s what WA’s results could mean for federal seats.
The trend of votes in the WA state election is broadly one against Labor. It’s not a surprising outcome given the heights the party reached in 2021 when it wiped out all but two Liberals from its opposition.
Under the former premier, Mark McGowan, Labor secured 53 of the assembly’s 59 available seats and achieved a primary vote of almost 60%.
A year later, McGowan’s popularity, and Scott Morrison’s infamy, was credited as one of the reasons federal Labor managed to win blue-ribbon seats in Tangney and Pearce. Swan and Hasluck, known swing seats, also turned red.
But the Liberals are hoping those gains will be reversed in the 2025 federal election.
Inner suburban state seats in the Tangney electorate, including Bicton and Bateman, recorded swings of about 6.4% and 4% against Labor respectively. They will remain Labor-held.
A similar story can be said for the state seats – Victoria Park, Belmont and Cannington – in the federal seat of Swan, which also recorded swings against Labor of about 10% on Saturday. Again, Labor’s strong primary vote will help the party retain those seats.
Kos Samaras, a RedBridge pollster and former Labor strategist, believes the seats are unlikely to change hands – though Tangney will be one to watch.
“There is going to be a difference, there’s no doubt about that,” he says. “There is going to be a correction [but] it’s going to be fairly small.”
It’s a forecast the electoral analyst Ben Raue agrees with. Sate results might not translate directly into federal ones, he says.
“Those state polls are suggesting a small swing, not a big swing,” Raue says. “But like-for-like comparisons are always dangerous.”
The results tell another story in the outer suburbs. Raue says the swings against Labor are more obvious the further someone drives from Perth.
Part of that is due to the vast margins WA Labor achieved in 2021. For example, in Rockingham, McGowan’s former seat in Perth’s outer south-west suburbs, Labor has suffered a 25% swing against it. It was on track to retain the seat with a 13% margin as of Sunday afternoon.
In Perth’s outer north, the state seats of Joondalup and Wanneroo, near the federal seat of Pearce, will be retained despite swings of 19.6% and 15.6% respectively.
“Labor’s holding on well in WA but I don’t think they’re winning any seats [at the federal election],” Raue says. “They’re getting swings against them in [the outer suburbs].”
Some Labor MPs Guardian Australia has spoken to acknowledged that the fight in the outer suburbs will be tougher this federal election. But they say the Liberals’ divisive messaging to outer-suburban workers, on topics such as climate and energy, can risk their inner suburban votes.
The main battle in Australia’s west will be fought in the newly created seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s outer-east, covering an expansive 9,500 sq km.
The three-way contest between Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals will be tight, Labor MPs say, but they’re not writing it off just yet.
The state seat of Kalamunda, wholly situated within Bullwinkel, is a neck-and-neck race between Labor and the Liberals. North of Kalamunda, partially within the Bullwinkel boundaries, is Swan Hills, where Labor is leading on an 8.7% margin despite an 18.6% swing.
Near Bullwinkel’s north-east boundary is the state seat of Central Wheatbelt, comfortably held by the Nationals. In the south, parts of the Darling Range state seat fall into Bullwinkel, where Labor has faced a smaller swing of about 9%.
Samaras points out that the state Labor brand is much stronger in WA than the federal brand, meaning voters for Cook’s government might not necessarily back Albanese. But the priorities for voters on Australia’s west coast vary compared with those on the east coast.
“It’s staggering how high the Labor primary [vote] still is but, really, their only chance [to gain a seat] here is Bullwinkel,” Samaras said.
Raue says it’s possible the Liberal and Nationals candidates could cannibalise each other’s votes in Bullwinkel but it will be a fight for Labor.
“Of all the Labor marginals in WA, it’s definitely the weakest,” he says.