Weather bureau says there is ‘considerable uncertainty’ around where and when system could make landfall between Noosa and Coolangatta in Queensland
Forecasters say Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s wayward behaviour en route to the south-east Queensland coast is creating “considerable uncertainty” in predicting where and when the system could make landfall.
Alfred performed another pirouette on Thursday evening, looping around on its path and further delaying its progress towards the heavily populated south-east Queensland coast.
The Bureau of Meteorology says the tropical cyclone is still expected to make landfall on Saturday morning, somewhere between Noosa and Coolangatta. The most recent tracking map suggests it could cross north of Brisbane.
Alfred’s slow progress to the mainland could prolong already severe conditions to the south of its projected path, particularly in parts of the Gold Coast and northern New South Wales already experiencing coastal erosion from wild surf, intense rain and potential flooding.
Thousands of people in parts of the NSW northern rivers were told to leave their homes on Thursday night, including residents in Lismore’s CBD, north and south. The community was devastated by flooding in 2022.
Evacuation orders have been issued as far south as the Nambucca shire – more than 400km south of the Queensland-New South Wales border – with river levels expected to rise on Friday morning.
The NSW State Emergency Service says it has already responded to 3,495 incidents, including three flood rescues.
Residents of Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast had been hunkered down since Wednesday evening. Queensland energy provider Energex says there have been 28,655 homes without power due to the cyclone.
Essential Energy said there were 35,000 homes and businesses without power in northern NSW on Thursday night after severe winds and heavy rain covered the region.
Alfred is forecast to remain a category 2 tropical cyclone until it reaches Moreton Bay. If it comes through the bay, there is a chance the system loses some intensity as it passes the bay islands, potentially reaching the mainland as a category one storm.
The Queensland premier, David Crisafulli, told ABC News breakfast on Friday morning there had been winds up to 100km/h recorded on the Gold Coast overnight.
“It did pack a punch,” Crisafulli said. “The system is continuing to move towards us, it is a category 2 at this stage [and] increasingly we’ll start feeling those wind speeds.”
The bureau’s tracking maps are a “best estimate”, using information from a number of models that predict how the cyclone might behave. Forecasters were accurately able to provide communities with significant warning that Alfred would turn west on Tuesday and head towards the coast.
But as if to underscore the difficulty of giving precise information, Alfred is not taking a direct route back to Brisbane.
Having lingered in the Coral Sea for almost a fortnight, Alfred has now performed several pirouettes since turning and making an unsteady course towards the mainland.
Late on Thursday the system performed another loop, further delaying its progress to the coast.
“The system maintains a general westerly track, however it recently completed a small loop, similar to previous loops that have occurred over the past few days,” the bureau said in its update on Friday.
“It would not be a surprise to see further short term variations in the track as Alfred nears the coast, which will be an important consideration when following the system on radar.
“A mid-level ridge to the south will steer Alfred generally westwards towards the coast. However, there is variation in the strength of the steering flow and north-south variations are anticipated.
“The latest track indicates that landfall is most likely on Friday night or Saturday morning. However, due to the system’s slow and occasionally erratic motion, there is considerable uncertainty in the exact timing, and the crossing itself is expected to be prolonged.”