The known quantity of a grizzled international head coach – with battle scars and trophies in the cabinet?
Or backing your own pathways by plucking the cream of the Super Rugby Pacific coaching stocks?
That's the decision facing Rugby Australia following the disappointing, but understandable, news that Joe Schmidt will step down as Wallabies supremo after this year's Rugby Championship.
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Joe Schmidt of the Wallabies speaks to Phil Waugh. Getty
Schmidt was up front about his family situation from day one after picking up the pieces of the Eddie Jones train wreck.
His son, Luke, lives in Taupo, New Zealand, and requires constant care for his severe epilepsy.
Schmidt decided he needed to offer more immediate support to his son and wife Kellie but is open to staying on RA's books in an advisory role should his successor want him to.
The Wallabies are on the hunt for a new coach. Getty/Nine
The cleanest baton pass would be to Queensland Reds coach Les Kiss.
Schmidt and Kiss – the former Maroons and Kangaroos winger – have worked together successfully with Ireland and are close.
Dan McKellar (NSW Waratahs) and Stephen Larkham (ACT Brumbies) are also strong domestic options and have both had stints overseas and as assistants with the Wallabies.
Michael Cheika of Leicester Tigers. Getty
The wildcards are Michael Cheika and Vern Cotter.
Cheika led Australia to the final of the 2015 Rugby World Cup and bowed out after a disappointing quarter-finals exit in 2019.
The Leicester Tigers coach is back on the market at the end of the 2025 Premiership season in June.
Joe Schmidt of Australia shouts instructions during the warm up in Cardiff. Getty
Schmidt's last game in charge will be against the All Blacks in Perth on October 4.
His replacement will take the reins against Jones' Japan in Tokyo on October 25.
"If you're Rugby Australia, you don't want to start from zero again, which has been the issue for a while," Stan Sport expert Morgan Turinui told Wide World of Sports on Friday.
Morgan Turinui on Rugby Heaven. Stan
"That really colours who you pick. You've got Michael Cheika, vast international experience, makes the semis of the last World Cup (with Argentina), has coached the Wallabies before and looks to be available at the right time.
"Then you have the Super Rugby head coach cohort, who are all vastly experienced in their own right. If you're looking for continuity, Kiss is the one who's worked with Schmidt, knows Schmidt.
"If Schmidt's an advisor, that's probably the one of the three, that you could see, from the outside, looks like it had some sort of logic.
Taniela Tupou and assistant coach Dan McKellar of the Wallabies celebrate in 2021. Getty
"McKellar and Larkham are well performed Super Rugby coaches. And then there's the foreign contingent. (New Zealander) Vern Cotter has just won a Super Rugby title at the Blues in a really pragmatic, physical way of playing – with a great list – and still scored some great tries as well.
"He has vast experience in France, Scotland and Fiji. They are the top five candidates for me."
RA chief executive Phil Waugh and high performance director Peter Horne are the key figures in recommending the next coach to the board.
Rugby Australia CEO Phil Waugh and director of high performance Peter Horne. Getty
The big question is whether they first shoulder tap their preferred candidate and see if they are willing to work with Schmidt – or lock Schmidt in first and work backwards from there.
Turinui played under Kiss at the Waratahs when he was defence coach.
He thinks he'd be up for the challenge as a Test head coach.
England coach Eddie Jones talks to London Irish coach Les Kiss in 2019. Getty
"It's the next natural progression. I loved my time working with him," Turinui said.
"He'd already coached the Springboks (as an assistant) – he was already an experienced coach. He is just a great human who knows the game well and I love the fact he's built a 25-year body of work as a coach. He could easily be the homegrown favourite.
"But Larkham can be a little bit forgotten down at the Brumbies, who are consistently Australia's best team.
Stephen Larkham talks to reporters. Stan
"The great thing about all those Aussie coaches – McKellar, Kiss and Larkham – is they've all had global experience at a provincial level and they've had a taste of international environments."
It is quite possible Schmidt still plays a major role in Australia's 2027 World Cup campaign on home soil.
But there is no sugar coating his loss as a full-time, boots on the ground coach.
Australia coach Joe Schmidt before the Autumn Nations Series match. Getty
It may well lead to more stars signing offshore.
"It's a setback and it's hard to quantify too," Turinui said.
"We've been in a volatile coaching period for a few years now, and we would have loved stability. Phil Waugh moved heaven and earth to try to keep him but it's a really understandable personal situation for him. It's not a surprise, but he's done such a good job.
"He's such a great human and great footy coach that, of course, if you're a rugby fan, you want him for more. But having him for this long is better than not having him at all.
"He's put the Wallabies on a nice path. It's just hugely important now that the right person is given the reins to continue that path.
"We don't want to start again."
The million dollar question is whether Cheika and Schmidt could work together. Turinui thinks yes.
"The mature, battle hardened Cheik I think is self aware enough to know that he doesn't have all the answers," he said.
"He loves having other people around to complement him now. I was really impressed with the way he built his Argentinian coaching staff, the continuity that Argentina had from (Mario) Ledesma to Cheik to (Felipe) Contepomi.
Australia coach Michael Cheika with Ireland coach Joe Schmidt. Getty
"I think Cheik's at a place in his life where he would 100 per cent consider it and have the discussion with Joe.
"'This is what I'm thinking, Joe. What are you thinking, Joe? Are we aligned? And if we're aligned, let's do it'.
"I think he's too smart a guy to dismiss the IP and the work done by Joe Schmidt out of hand. If Rugby Australia went to Michael Cheika – you can be the Wallabies coach, but we'd love you to consider working with Joe Schmidt – there's no way that he dismisses that out of hand."
